GIL Vicente 1-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Vizela meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 February 2023 at 20:15 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's home record at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Vizela have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vizela have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for GIL Vicente, 1.40 for Vizela — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for GIL Vicente, 0 for Vizela and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Vizela — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 54% versus Vizela 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 52% | Vizela 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.14 xG and Vizela 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.846 / defence 1.029 | Vizela attack 0.997 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 0.970. Data: 54 GIL Vicente games / 54 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 30% | Vizela 32%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Vizela 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 40% | Vizela 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 30% | Vizela 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG GIL Vicente 1.14 / Vizela 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.846 / def 1.029 | Vizela attack 0.997 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.373 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Vizela xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Vizela kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Vizela kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
GIL Vicente 1 - 1 Vizela.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Vizela part of?
GIL Vicente vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 39% chance of winning, Vizela a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both GIL Vicente and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Vizela?
Record (3 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 2 | Vizela 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Vizela in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Vizela (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Vizela's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (1.00x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
39%
2.57
30%
3.38
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.14
1.00
Vizela xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
10%
9.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.00 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 19W 16D 19L from 54 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 24L across 54 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.07 for Vizela. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 9W 9D 9L from 27 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vizela's away record stands at 6W 7D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.09 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Vizela in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 games (1.35 PPG), while Vizela have gone 14W 16D 24L in their last 54 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Vizela away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.33 PPG; Vizela away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Vizela have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
2
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 1, Vizela have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when GIL Vicente 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Vizela?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 44%, Vizela 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (GIL Vicente) and 59% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 30% of games; Vizela in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 63% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 59% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
GIL Vicente and Vizela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente and Vizela finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.14 xG and Vizela 1.00 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Vizela attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 39% | Draw 30% | Vizela 32%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 52%, Vizela 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.35 PPG, Vizela 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.