Famalicao 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 12 February 2023 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 6W 1D 3L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Famalicao are significantly better at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho than their overall form suggests.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Famalicao, 1 for GIL Vicente and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 51% versus GIL Vicente 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 55% | GIL Vicente 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 1.52 xG and GIL Vicente 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.931 / defence 0.891 | GIL Vicente attack 1.092 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 0.972. Data: 53 Famalicao games / 53 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 51% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 24%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | GIL Vicente 4.17. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 40% | GIL Vicente 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 51% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Famalicao 1.52 / GIL Vicente 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.931 / def 0.891 | GIL Vicente attack 1.092 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.401 / away 0.972 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
0.95
GIL Vicente xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Famalicao 0 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente part of?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 51% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Famalicao and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
Record (3 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 2 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (1.09x) against Famalicao's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
51%
1.98
26%
3.86
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.46
0.95
GIL Vicente xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
5%
19.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.2 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Famalicao and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Famalicao and 0.95 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao's recent record stands at 15W 15D 23L from 53 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 18W 16D 19L across 53 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Famalicao against 1.32 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 10W 8D 8L from 26 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 9W 7D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.25 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 15W 15D 23L in their last 53 games (1.13 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 18W 16D 19L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or GIL Vicente away?
Famalicao's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.46 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Famalicao or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
4
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 5-0 Famalicao.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, GIL Vicente 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Famalicao) and 62% (GIL Vicente). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play GIL Vicente?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Famalicao's games and 65% of GIL Vicente's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Famalicao's matches and 62% of GIL Vicente's.
Do Famalicao and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Famalicao 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Famalicao 0-1 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 1.52 xG and GIL Vicente 0.95 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against GIL Vicente attack 1.09 / defence 1.16, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 51% | Draw 26% | GIL Vicente 24%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a GIL Vicente win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 55%, GIL Vicente 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.13 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.