Maritimo vs Arouca – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arouca at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to to face Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Maritimo (all games): 2W 1D 1L across 4 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arouca have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arouca's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.75 PPG for Maritimo against 1.90 for Arouca. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Maritimo, 2 for Arouca and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Arouca winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Maritimo — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Arouca — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Maritimo 75% versus Arouca 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 75% | Arouca 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.17 xG and Arouca 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.901 / defence 1.099 | Arouca attack 0.910 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.260. Data: 4 Maritimo games / 38 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 34% | Draw 27% | Arouca 39%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Arouca 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arouca at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arouca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 75% | Arouca 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 34% | Draw 27% | Arouca 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Maritimo 1.17 / Arouca 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.901 / def 1.099 | Arouca attack 0.910 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Arouca (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Arouca xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Arouca kick off?
Maritimo vs Arouca is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027.
What competition is Maritimo vs Arouca part of?
Maritimo vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 34% chance of winning, Arouca a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Maritimo and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Arouca?
Record (5 meetings): Maritimo 1W | Draws 2 | Arouca 2W.
What form are Maritimo and Arouca in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-D-L. Arouca (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Maritimo's attack at 0.90x the league average against Arouca's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (0.91x) against Maritimo's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.64
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.43
1.26
Arouca xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.26 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Maritimo's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 3W 0D 1L across 4 games — 2.25 PPG, with W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arouca by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.75 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Arouca in 25%.
Defensively: Arouca in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Early Season
Arouca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Arouca in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Arouca have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Maritimo or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Arouca in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Arouca have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Maritimo won 0-3 on 14 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Maritimo
2
Draws
2
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Arouca?
From 5 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 1, Arouca have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Arouca 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Arouca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 75%, Arouca 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Maritimo and 50% for Arouca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arouca in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Maritimo's recent matches and 25% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Maritimo's matches and 50% of Arouca's.
Do Maritimo and Arouca tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Arouca in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.