Arouca vs Estoril – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Arouca at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arouca vs Estoril encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arouca and Estoril meet at in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Arouca (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Arouca have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arouca have posted 7W 1D 2L at — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Estoril have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Arouca. A 1.60 PPG lead over Estoril (1.90 vs 0.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Arouca, 4 for Estoril and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Arouca winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Arouca — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Estoril — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 53% versus Estoril 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 66% | Estoril 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 2.00 xG and Estoril 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.350 / defence 0.902 | Estoril attack 0.847 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.260. Arouca carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 2.00 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Arouca games / 38 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arouca 61% | Draw 21% | Estoril 18%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Estoril 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Arouca (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arouca are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Arouca 70% | Estoril 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arouca vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arouca 61% | Draw 21% | Estoril 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Arouca 2.00 / Estoril 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Arouca attack 1.350 / def 0.902 | Estoril attack 0.847 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Arouca (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Arouca xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Estoril xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arouca vs Estoril kick off?
Arouca vs Estoril is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027.
What competition is Arouca vs Estoril part of?
Arouca vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Arouca vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Arouca a 61% chance of winning, Estoril a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Arouca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Arouca and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Arouca vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Estoril?
Record (10 meetings): Arouca 5W | Draws 1 | Estoril 4W.
What form are Arouca and Estoril in?
Arouca (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Estoril (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arouca's attack at 1.35x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estoril's attack (0.85x) against Arouca's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arouca Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.74
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Arouca xG
Total xG
2.96
0.96
Estoril xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
23%
4.27
2%
42.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arouca vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Arouca and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Arouca and 0.96 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Arouca vs Estoril?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arouca's recent record stands at 15W 6D 17L from 38 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arouca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Estoril, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 18L across 38 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Arouca against 1.05 for Estoril. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arouca have managed 9W 4D 6L from 19 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estoril's away record stands at 4W 4D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arouca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arouca are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.47 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arouca
Early Season
Estoril
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arouca and Estoril in coming into this match?
Arouca have gone 15W 6D 17L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Estoril have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arouca at home or Estoril away?
Arouca's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arouca at home: 1.63 PPG; Estoril away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Estoril won 4-1 on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arouca have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Estoril — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Arouca
1
Draws
4
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arouca and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, Arouca have won 5, Estoril have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arouca and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Arouca 3-2 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Arouca and Estoril?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arouca 58%, Estoril 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Arouca and 63% for Estoril. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arouca home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arouca play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Arouca's recent matches and 47% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arouca vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Arouca's matches and 63% of Estoril's.
Do Arouca and Estoril tend to score early?
Arouca have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Estoril in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.