Benfica vs Maritimo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Maritimo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Maritimo travel to to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's home record at : 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have recorded 2W 2D 4L from 8 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Maritimo's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benfica register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Maritimo in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Benfica hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Maritimo, with 0 draws in between.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2026, ended 3–0 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Maritimo trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benfica 50% and Maritimo 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Benfica 88% | Maritimo 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.19 xG and Maritimo 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.339 / defence 0.878 | Maritimo attack 0.879 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.364. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Benfica games / 8 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 63% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 17%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Maritimo 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 60% | Maritimo 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 63% | Draw 20% | Maritimo 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Benfica 2.19 / Maritimo 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.339 / def 0.878 | Maritimo attack 0.879 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Benfica (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Maritimo xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Maritimo kick off?
Benfica vs Maritimo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027.
What competition is Benfica vs Maritimo part of?
Benfica vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 63% chance of winning, Maritimo a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Benfica and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
Record (5 meetings): Benfica 5W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.75 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.34x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
63%
1.58
20%
5.08
17%
5.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.24
1.05
Maritimo xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.08
20%
Draw
5.82
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
11%
8.90
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
2%
51.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Benfica and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Benfica and 1.05 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.38 PPG on a 6W 1D 1L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo's form line: 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.38 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
On the road, Maritimo have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 3.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.12 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo in 75%.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 6W 1D 1L in their last 8 games (2.38 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Maritimo away?
Benfica's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.50 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Benfica or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Maritimo in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Benfica won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
From 5 meetings on record, Benfica have won 5, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Maritimo?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benfica at 75%, Maritimo at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Benfica and 75% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Benfica's games and 100% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Benfica's matches and 75% of Maritimo's.
Do Benfica and Maritimo tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.