Benfica vs Maritimo – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Maritimo travel to to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica's home record at : 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Maritimo have recorded 2W 1D 1L from 4 outings — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.25. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Benfica 2.20 PPG, Maritimo 1.75 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benfica register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Maritimo in 75% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Benfica hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Maritimo, with 0 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 3–0 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Maritimo trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benfica 75% and Maritimo 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Benfica 100% | Maritimo 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.82 xG and Maritimo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.232 / defence 1.008 | Maritimo attack 0.981 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.260. Data: 37 Benfica games / 4 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 51% | Draw 23% | Maritimo 26%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | Maritimo 3.85. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 60% | Maritimo 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 51% | Draw 23% | Maritimo 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Benfica 1.82 / Maritimo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.232 / def 1.008 | Maritimo attack 0.981 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Benfica (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Maritimo xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Maritimo kick off?
Benfica vs Maritimo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 February 2027.
What competition is Benfica vs Maritimo part of?
Benfica vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 51% chance of winning, Maritimo a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Benfica and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
Record (4 meetings): Benfica 4W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.23x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
51%
1.96
23%
4.36
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.07
1.25
Maritimo xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
4%
23.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Benfica and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Benfica and 1.25 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 3W 1D 0L record — W-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Maritimo's form line: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 3.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Maritimo in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Benfica have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Benfica won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Benfica have won 4, Maritimo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Maritimo?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Benfica at 75%, Maritimo at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Benfica and 75% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Benfica's games and 75% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Benfica's matches and 75% of Maritimo's.
Do Benfica and Maritimo tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.