GIL Vicente vs Famalicao – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Famalicao meet at in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
GIL Vicente (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.10 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIL Vicente lead 2W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 45% versus Famalicao 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 48% | Famalicao 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.06 xG and Famalicao 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 0.918 / defence 0.828 | Famalicao attack 1.095 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.364. Data: 42 GIL Vicente games / 42 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 32% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 40%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Famalicao 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: GIL Vicente 50% | Famalicao 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 32% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG GIL Vicente 1.06 / Famalicao 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 0.918 / def 0.828 | Famalicao attack 1.095 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Famalicao xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Famalicao kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao part of?
GIL Vicente vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 32% chance of winning, Famalicao a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both GIL Vicente and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
Record (10 meetings): GIL Vicente 2W | Draws 5 | Famalicao 3W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Famalicao (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 0.92x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (1.09x) against GIL Vicente's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
32%
3.16
28%
3.54
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.30
1.24
Famalicao xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
9%
10.88
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.24 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 17W 13D 12L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao's form line: 16W 15D 11L from 42 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.50 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIL Vicente have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
On the road, Famalicao have gone 7W 9D 5L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.24 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Famalicao in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Famalicao in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 17W 13D 12L in their last 42 games (1.52 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 16W 15D 11L in their last 42 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Famalicao away?
GIL Vicente's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.76 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.43 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Famalicao in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
GIL Vicente
5
Draws
3
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 2, Famalicao have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Famalicao 0-0 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 43%, Famalicao 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (GIL Vicente) and 33% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Famalicao in 38%; Famalicao in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 38% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 33% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Famalicao tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.