Vizela 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Vizela face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vizela host Benfica at Estádio Do Vizela in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Vizela — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Estádio Do Vizela this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Benfica — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Vizela's 20% and Benfica's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vizela, 2 for Benfica and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vizela trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Benfica trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vizela 54% versus Benfica 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vizela 44% | Benfica 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vizela 0.94 xG and Benfica 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vizela attack 1.029 / defence 0.842 | Benfica attack 1.459 / defence 0.660. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 0.992. Benfica's defence strength of 0.660 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.459 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Vizela games / 55 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vizela 28% | Draw 29% | Benfica 43%. Fair-value odds: Vizela 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Benfica 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vizela 20% | Benfica 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vizela vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estádio Do Vizela • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vizela 28% | Draw 29% | Benfica 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Vizela 0.94 / Benfica 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Vizela attack 1.029 / def 0.842 | Benfica attack 1.459 / def 0.660 | league avg home 1.379 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Benfica (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Vizela xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Benfica xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vizela vs Benfica kick off?
Vizela vs Benfica kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Estádio Do Vizela.
What was the final score in Vizela vs Benfica?
Vizela 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is Vizela vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Do Vizela.
What competition is Vizela vs Benfica part of?
Vizela vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Vizela vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Vizela a 28% chance of winning, Benfica a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vizela vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Vizela and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Vizela vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Benfica?
Record (3 meetings): Vizela 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 2W.
What form are Vizela and Benfica in?
Vizela (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vizela's attack at 1.03x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Vizela's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
28%
3.53
29%
3.44
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Vizela xG
Total xG
2.16
1.22
Benfica xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.1 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vizela vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Vizela and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Vizela and 1.22 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Vizela vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Vizela have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 14W 17D 24L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica's form line: 41W 7D 7L from 55 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.29 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vizela.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vizela have posted 1.22 PPG from 27 outings (8W 9D 10L).
On the road, Benfica have gone 21W 3D 3L from 27 away games — 2.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vizela are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.40 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vizela
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vizela and Benfica in coming into this match?
Vizela have gone 14W 17D 24L in their last 55 games (1.07 PPG), while Benfica have gone 41W 7D 7L in their last 55 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vizela at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vizela at home: 1.22 PPG; Benfica away: 2.44 PPG.
Have Vizela or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vizela have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Benfica in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vizela and Benfica runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Feb 2024, when Benfica won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vizela's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vizela
1
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vizela and Benfica?
From 6 meetings on record, Vizela have won 0, Benfica have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vizela and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2024, when Benfica 6-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Vizela and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vizela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vizela 44%, Benfica 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Vizela) and 56% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 59%; Vizela have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vizela home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vizela play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Vizela's recent matches and 37% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vizela vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Vizela's recent games and 56% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vizela and Benfica tend to score early?
Vizela have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benfica in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Vizela.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Vizela 0-2 at Estádio Do Vizela, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vizela 0.94 xG and Benfica 1.22 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Vizela fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vizela attack 1.03 / defence 0.84 against Benfica attack 1.46 / defence 0.66, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vizela 28% | Draw 29% | Benfica 43%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vizela 44%, Benfica 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vizela's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Benfica's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. Vizela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.