Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates GIL Vicente at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's home record at : 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIL Vicente away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
GIL Vicente arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to GIL Vicente, who have claimed 5 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with GIL Vicente winning.
It is worth noting that GIL Vicente have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 43% versus GIL Vicente 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 43% | GIL Vicente 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.82 xG and GIL Vicente 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.700 / defence 1.354 | GIL Vicente attack 0.880 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.364. Casa Pia's attack strength of 0.700 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Casa Pia games / 42 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 19% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 56%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 5.26 | Draw 4.00 | GIL Vicente 1.79. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 30% | GIL Vicente 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 19% | Draw 25% | GIL Vicente 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Casa Pia 0.82 / GIL Vicente 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.700 / def 1.354 | GIL Vicente attack 0.880 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.62
GIL Vicente xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 31 January 2027.
What competition is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente part of?
Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 19% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Casa Pia and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
Record (9 meetings): Casa Pia 1W | Draws 3 | GIL Vicente 5W.
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Casa Pia's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.88x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
19%
5.29
25%
4.05
56%
1.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.45
1.62
GIL Vicente xG
5.29
19%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
1.77
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
4%
26.81
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.62 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia's recent record stands at 7W 14D 21L from 42 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 12L across 42 games — 1.52 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Casa Pia have managed 3W 9D 9L from 21 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 6W 9D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.31 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: GIL Vicente in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 7W 14D 21L in their last 42 games (0.83 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 17W 13D 12L in their last 42 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 0.86 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
5
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
From 9 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 1, GIL Vicente have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2026, when GIL Vicente 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 52%, GIL Vicente 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Casa Pia) and 52% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente in 38%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 43% of games; GIL Vicente in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 48% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Casa Pia's recent games and 52% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.