Estrela 1-0 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estrela face Santa Clara.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estrela host Santa Clara at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Estrela — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Estrela have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Santa Clara have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Santa Clara have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estrela at 1.00 PPG versus Santa Clara's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Estrela, 1 for Santa Clara and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Estrela 0–0 Santa Clara — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Estrela trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Santa Clara trading profile (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 39% versus Santa Clara 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Estrela 41% | Santa Clara 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.25 xG and Santa Clara 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.884 / defence 1.269 | Santa Clara attack 0.843 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.250. Estrela's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Santa Clara's projected output up. Data: built from Estrela's last 54 games and Santa Clara's last 54.
Result probabilities: Estrela 35% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 39%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 2.87 | Draw 3.79 | Santa Clara 2.58. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Santa Clara as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 0.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Estrela 50% (last 10 home games) | Santa Clara 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 21 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 35% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Estrela 1.25 / Santa Clara 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.884 / def 1.269 | Santa Clara attack 0.843 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Santa Clara xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estrela vs Santa Clara FAQs
What time does Estrela vs Santa Clara kick off?
Estrela vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Estrela 1 - 0 Santa Clara.
Where is Estrela vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Santa Clara part of?
Estrela vs Santa Clara is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 21) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 35% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Estrela and Santa Clara will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estrela vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estrela's attack at 0.88x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Estrela's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estrela's last 54 games and Santa Clara's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.79
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.59
1.34
Santa Clara xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
9%
10.94
11%
9.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estrela vs Santa Clara Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Estrela and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Estrela and 1.34 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estrela's recent record stands at 11W 16D 27L from 54 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Santa Clara, meanwhile, have gone 21W 11D 22L across 54 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Santa Clara by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estrela heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 7W 8D 11L from their last 26 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Santa Clara's away record stands at 8W 7D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Estrela are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.96 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
Estrela (Home) vs Santa Clara (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estrela
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Estrela vs Santa Clara Form FAQs
What form are Estrela and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 11W 16D 27L in their last 54 games (0.91 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 21W 11D 22L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Santa Clara away?
Santa Clara's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.12 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Estrela's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Estrela
2
Draws
1
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Estrela vs Santa Clara H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Santa Clara?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Estrela have won 1, Santa Clara have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Santa Clara last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Estrela 1-0 Santa Clara.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 46%, Santa Clara 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estrela) and 31% (Santa Clara).
On the defensive side: Estrela have failed to score in 38% of games; Santa Clara in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estrela vs Santa Clara Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estrela and Santa Clara matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Estrela's recent matches and 46% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estrela and Santa Clara matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Estrela's recent games and 31% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estrela and Santa Clara matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Estrela's recent matches and 65% of Santa Clara's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Estrela defy the odds to beat Santa Clara 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estrela beat Santa Clara 1-0 at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.25 xG and Santa Clara 1.34 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.88 / defence 1.27 against Santa Clara attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 35% | Draw 26% | Santa Clara 39%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Estrela win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 41%, Santa Clara 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Santa Clara's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Estrela winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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