Estoril 3-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Estoril at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estoril face GIL Vicente.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio António Coimbra da Mota to face Estoril in Primeira Liga (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Estoril's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Estoril's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

GIL Vicente have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, GIL Vicente have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Estoril against 1.70 for GIL Vicente. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 9 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Estoril, 3 for GIL Vicente and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2025, ended Estoril 0–2 GIL Vicente — a GIL Vicente win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 57% versus GIL Vicente 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 70% | GIL Vicente 43%). Note also that GIL Vicente surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Estoril recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 37% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.76 xG and GIL Vicente 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.293 / defence 1.179 | GIL Vicente attack 0.992 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.227. Estoril carry an above-average attack rating of 1.293 — their 1.76 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Estoril's last 56 games and GIL Vicente's last 56.

Result probabilities: Estoril 45% | Draw 23% | GIL Vicente 31%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 2.20 | Draw 4.33 | GIL Vicente 3.18. Estoril hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.76 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estoril if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and GIL Vicente's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 70% (last 10 home games) | GIL Vicente 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights