AVS 3-0 Estoril – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Estoril at 71% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AVS vs Estoril encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

AVS host Estoril at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Primeira Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 15 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, AVS have gone 0W 2D 8L — a 0.20 PPG return. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.

AVS at home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Estoril — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Estoril have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Estoril — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, AVS have won 0, Estoril 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2025, ended AVS 1–3 Estoril — a Estoril win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

AVS in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 100%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Estoril in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AVS 47% versus Estoril 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AVS 53% | Estoril 69%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AVS surrender their half-time lead 100% of the time, while Estoril have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects AVS 1.08 xG and Estoril 2.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AVS attack 0.621 / defence 1.437 | Estoril attack 1.498 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.242. AVS's attack rating of 0.621 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Estoril have an above-average attack rating of 1.498, which lifts their away xG to 2.67. AVS's defence rating of 1.437 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Estoril's projected output up. Data: built from AVS's last 55 games and Estoril's last 55.

Result probabilities: AVS 13% | Draw 16% | Estoril 71%. Fair-value odds: AVS 7.75 | Draw 6.31 | Estoril 1.40. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (71%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.08 / 2.67) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 71% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AVS's last 10 home games and Estoril's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: AVS 50% (last 10 home games) | Estoril 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights