Arouca 1-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Benfica (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Arouca face Benfica.

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Analysis & Preview

Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Arouca to take on Arouca in Primeira Liga (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 March 2026 at 20:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Arouca — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Arouca's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Benfica stand at 7W 3D 0L — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Benfica have posted 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H Record

Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the 9 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Arouca.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 9 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2025, ended Arouca 0–5 Benfica — a Benfica win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Benfica have won 8 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Arouca trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Benfica trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arouca 54% versus Benfica 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arouca 56% | Benfica 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Arouca surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Benfica have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arouca 1.07 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arouca attack 1.066 / defence 1.195 | Benfica attack 1.300 / defence 0.671. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.186. Benfica bring a tight defence (rating 0.671, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Arouca's projected output down. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.300, which lifts their away xG to 1.84. Data: built from Arouca's last 59 games and Benfica's last 59.

Result probabilities: Arouca 21% | Draw 24% | Benfica 55%. Fair-value odds: Arouca 4.73 | Draw 4.14 | Benfica 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Arouca's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Arouca 40% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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