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Poisson model favours Benfica (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Guimaraes.

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Analysis & Preview

A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Guimaraes travel to Estádio da Luz to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 7W 3D 0L at Estádio da Luz — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Guimaraes — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guimaraes's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On current form, Benfica have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Benfica have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while Guimaraes have managed just 0 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 3–0 with Benfica winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Benfica trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Guimaraes trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 52% versus Guimaraes 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 68% | Guimaraes 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.39 xG and Guimaraes 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.342 / defence 0.849 | Guimaraes attack 0.918 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.154. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 2.39 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 60 Benfica games / 60 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Benfica 70% | Draw 17% | Guimaraes 12%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Guimaraes 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 60% | Guimaraes 30%.

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