Famalicao 1-0 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs Arouca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arouca make the trip to Estadio Municipal de Famalicao to face Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 20:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Famalicao have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's home record at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
Arouca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arouca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arouca away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Famalicao against 1.40 for Arouca. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Famalicao, 4 for Arouca and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Famalicao — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Arouca — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 45% versus Arouca 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 47% | Arouca 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 2.31 xG and Arouca 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 1.150 / defence 0.820 | Arouca attack 1.071 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.192. Arouca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Famalicao's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Famalicao games / 58 Arouca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 65% | Draw 19% | Arouca 15%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Arouca 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Famalicao (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Famalicao are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.35 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 40% | Arouca 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Famalicao • Kick-off: Friday 6 Mar 2026, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 65% | Draw 19% | Arouca 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Famalicao 2.31 / Arouca 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 1.150 / def 0.820 | Arouca attack 1.071 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Arouca xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs Arouca kick off?
Famalicao vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 6 March 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Famalicao 1 - 0 Arouca.
Where is Famalicao vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao.
What competition is Famalicao vs Arouca part of?
Famalicao vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 65% chance of winning, Arouca a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Famalicao and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
Record (9 meetings): Famalicao 2W | Draws 3 | Arouca 4W.
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in?
Famalicao (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Arouca (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Famalicao's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.31. Flip it around — Arouca's attack (1.07x) against Famalicao's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
65%
1.54
19%
5.13
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Famalicao xG
Total xG
3.35
1.05
Arouca xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
10%
10.02
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
2%
65.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Famalicao and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.05 for Arouca, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs Arouca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Famalicao's recent record stands at 22W 17D 19L from 58 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 26L across 58 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Arouca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Famalicao against 1.10 for Arouca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 13W 9D 7L from 29 games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 7W 7D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Famalicao come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Famalicao are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 1.16 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Blended
Arouca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and Arouca in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 22W 17D 19L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while Arouca have gone 16W 16D 26L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or Arouca away?
Famalicao's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.66 PPG; Arouca away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Famalicao or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Arouca in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arouca won 4-1 on 10 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Arouca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
3
Draws
4
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, Arouca have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Arouca.
Who has won more matches between Famalicao and Arouca?
Arouca have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 38%, Arouca 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Famalicao) and 69% (Arouca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Famalicao have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play Arouca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Famalicao's recent matches and 62% of Arouca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Famalicao's matches and 69% of Arouca's.
Do Famalicao and Arouca tend to score early?
Famalicao have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Arouca in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Arouca 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Arouca 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Famalicao, Regular Season - 25, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 2.31 xG and Arouca 1.05 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Arouca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 1.15 / defence 0.82 against Arouca attack 1.07 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 65% | Draw 19% | Arouca 15%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 47%, Arouca 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Arouca's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Famalicao 1.43 PPG, Arouca 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.