Alverca 1-1 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alverca at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alverca vs Santa Clara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alverca host Santa Clara at FC Alverca Sports Complex in Primeira Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Alverca — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Alverca have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Alverca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Santa Clara stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Santa Clara's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Alverca carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.10 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Alverca have won 0, Santa Clara 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended Alverca 1–2 Santa Clara — a Santa Clara win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Alverca in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (last 22 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alverca 50% versus Santa Clara 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alverca 54% | Santa Clara 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alverca 1.06 xG and Santa Clara 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alverca attack 0.742 / defence 1.091 | Santa Clara attack 0.760 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.226. Alverca's attack rating of 0.742 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Santa Clara's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Data: built from Alverca's last 22 games and Santa Clara's last 56.
Result probabilities: Alverca 36% | Draw 30% | Santa Clara 34%. Fair-value odds: Alverca 2.76 | Draw 3.32 | Santa Clara 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alverca are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alverca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alverca's last 10 home games and Santa Clara's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alverca 40% (last 10 home games) | Santa Clara 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alverca vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: FC Alverca Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alverca 36% | Draw 30% | Santa Clara 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Alverca 1.06 / Santa Clara 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Alverca attack 0.742 / def 1.091 | Santa Clara attack 0.760 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Alverca (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Alverca xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Santa Clara xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alverca vs Santa Clara FAQs
What time does Alverca vs Santa Clara kick off?
Alverca vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Alverca 1 - 1 Santa Clara.
Where is Alverca vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What competition is Alverca vs Santa Clara part of?
Alverca vs Santa Clara is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives Alverca a 36% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alverca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alverca and Santa Clara will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Alverca vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alverca's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Santa Clara's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Santa Clara's attack versus Alverca's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alverca's last 22 games and Santa Clara's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alverca Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.32
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Alverca xG
Total xG
2.08
1.02
Santa Clara xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alverca vs Santa Clara Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Alverca and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Alverca and 1.02 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Alverca vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Alverca have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 7W 4D 11L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Santa Clara's form line: 4W 5D 13L from 22 games, 0.77 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Alverca on 1.14 PPG, Santa Clara on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Alverca have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 10 home games (5W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Alverca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Santa Clara have gone 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alverca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alverca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 0.77 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 22 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alverca
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
Alverca (Home) vs Santa Clara (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alverca
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Alverca vs Santa Clara Form FAQs
What form are Alverca and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
Alverca have gone 7W 4D 11L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alverca at home or Santa Clara away?
Alverca's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alverca at home: 1.70 PPG; Santa Clara away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2025. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Alverca's record when hosting Santa Clara specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Alverca
2
Draws
1
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Alverca vs Santa Clara H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Santa Clara?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Alverca have won 0, Santa Clara have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alverca and Santa Clara last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Alverca 1-1 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Alverca and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alverca 40%, Santa Clara 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Alverca and 30% for Santa Clara.
On the defensive side: Alverca keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Santa Clara in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alverca home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alverca vs Santa Clara Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alverca and Santa Clara matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Alverca's recent matches and 40% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alverca and Santa Clara matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Alverca's recent games and 30% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alverca and Santa Clara matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Alverca's recent matches and 60% of Santa Clara's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Alverca and Santa Clara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 23, as Alverca and Santa Clara drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.06 xG and Santa Clara 1.02 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Santa Clara attack 0.76 / defence 0.93, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alverca 36% | Draw 30% | Santa Clara 34%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 54%, Santa Clara 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alverca's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Santa Clara's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alverca 1.14 PPG, Santa Clara 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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