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Poisson model rates Guimaraes at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guimaraes vs Alverca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Alverca make the trip to Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques to face Guimaraes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Guimaraes have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guimaraes at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Alverca (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alverca, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Alverca away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Guimaraes, 0.90 for Alverca — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Guimaraes 0W, Alverca 1W, 0D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Alverca winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Alverca half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 44% versus Alverca 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 48% | Alverca 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.83 xG and Alverca 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 0.946 / defence 0.954 | Alverca attack 0.803 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.190. Alverca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Guimaraes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Guimaraes games / 23 Alverca games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guimaraes 59% | Draw 23% | Alverca 18%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Alverca 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Guimaraes (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Guimaraes at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guimaraes 50% | Alverca 60% BTTS from recent games.

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