Alverca 0-0 AVS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alverca at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alverca face AVS.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Alverca host AVS at FC Alverca Sports Complex in Primeira Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Alverca stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Alverca have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Alverca are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, AVS have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AVS away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Alverca 1.00 PPG, AVS 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Alverca have won 1, AVS 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Alverca 3–1 AVS — a Alverca win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Alverca trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
AVS trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alverca 54% versus AVS 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alverca 50% | AVS 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alverca 1.72 xG and AVS 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alverca attack 0.745 / defence 1.117 | AVS attack 0.849 / defence 1.522. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.183. Alverca's attack rating of 0.745 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.72. AVS's defence rating of 1.522 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alverca's projected output up. Data: built from Alverca's last 24 games and AVS's last 58.
Result probabilities: Alverca 51% | Draw 24% | AVS 24%. Fair-value odds: Alverca 1.96 | Draw 4.09 | AVS 4.10. Alverca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alverca are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alverca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Alverca's last 10 home games and AVS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Alverca 40% (last 10 home games) | AVS 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alverca vs AVS | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: FC Alverca Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 7 March 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alverca 51% | Draw 24% | AVS 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Alverca 1.72 / AVS 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Alverca attack 0.745 / def 1.117 | AVS attack 0.849 / def 1.522 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Alverca (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Alverca xG
Expected Goals
1.12
AVS xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alverca vs AVS FAQs
What time does Alverca vs AVS kick off?
Alverca vs AVS kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 7 March 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Alverca vs AVS?
Alverca 0 - 0 AVS.
Where is Alverca vs AVS being played?
The match is being played at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What competition is Alverca vs AVS part of?
Alverca vs AVS is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Alverca vs AVS?
Our statistical model gives Alverca a 51% chance of winning, AVS a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Alverca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs AVS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Alverca and AVS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alverca vs AVS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Alverca's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against AVS's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, AVS's attack versus Alverca's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Alverca's last 24 games and AVS's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alverca Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.09
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Alverca xG
Total xG
2.85
1.12
AVS xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
4%
22.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alverca vs AVS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alverca vs AVS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Alverca and AVS expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Alverca and 1.12 for AVS, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Alverca vs AVS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Alverca come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 6D 11L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, AVS sit at 0.38 PPG from 24 outings (1W 6D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Alverca carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of AVS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Alverca's home form reads 5W 3D 3L across their last 11 home games, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Alverca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AVS have taken 0.18 points per game from their last 11 away games (0W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alverca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Alverca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; AVS are on 0.75 scored and 2.38 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alverca
Blended
AVS
Blended
Alverca (Home) vs AVS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alverca
Blended
AVS
Blended
❓ Alverca vs AVS Form FAQs
What form are Alverca and AVS in coming into this match?
Alverca have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 games (1.12 PPG), while AVS have gone 1W 6D 17L in their last 24 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alverca at home or AVS away?
Alverca's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alverca at home: 1.64 PPG; AVS away: 0.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2025. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alverca
1
Draws
0
AVS
Recent Meetings
❓ Alverca vs AVS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and AVS?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Alverca have won 1, AVS have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Alverca and AVS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Alverca 0-0 AVS.
Who has won more matches between Alverca and AVS?
Alverca have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alverca 46%, AVS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Alverca) and 82% (AVS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 9% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alverca keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; AVS in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alverca home games / AVS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alverca vs AVS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alverca and AVS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Alverca's recent matches and 46% of AVS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alverca and AVS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Alverca's matches and 82% of AVS's.
Do Alverca and AVS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Alverca's recent matches and 73% of AVS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alverca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 25, as Alverca and AVS drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.72 xG and AVS 1.12 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alverca fell 1.7 short of their projected output. AVS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.74 / defence 1.12 against AVS attack 0.85 / defence 1.52, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alverca 51% | Draw 24% | AVS 24%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 50%, AVS 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alverca's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AVS's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Alverca arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. AVS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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