AVS 0-0 Estrela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estrela at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this AVS vs Estrela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Estrela travel to Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves to take on AVS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, AVS have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, AVS have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Estrela — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estrela's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AVS 0.50 PPG, Estrela 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, AVS have won 1, Estrela 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Estrela winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
AVS trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Estrela trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AVS 46% versus Estrela 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AVS 54% | Estrela 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AVS 1.45 xG and Estrela 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AVS attack 0.747 / defence 1.271 | Estrela attack 1.006 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.559 / away 1.201. AVS's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Estrela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing AVS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 AVS games / 57 Estrela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AVS 36% | Draw 24% | Estrela 40%. Fair-value odds: AVS 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Estrela 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estrela are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estrela offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AVS 50% | Estrela 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AVS vs Estrela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AVS 36% | Draw 24% | Estrela 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG AVS 1.45 / Estrela 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: AVS attack 0.747 / def 1.271 | Estrela attack 1.006 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.559 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Estrela (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
AVS xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Estrela xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AVS vs Estrela kick off?
AVS vs Estrela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What was the final score in AVS vs Estrela?
AVS 0 - 0 Estrela.
Where is AVS vs Estrela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What competition is AVS vs Estrela part of?
AVS vs Estrela is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win AVS vs Estrela?
Our statistical model gives AVS a 36% chance of winning, Estrela a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Estrela the favourite.
Will both teams score in AVS vs Estrela?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both AVS and Estrela will score (BTTS).
Will AVS vs Estrela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Estrela?
Record (3 meetings): AVS 1W | Draws 1 | Estrela 1W.
What form are AVS and Estrela in?
AVS (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Estrela (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AVS's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Estrela's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Estrela's attack versus AVS's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Estrela Win
36%
2.78
24%
4.11
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
AVS xG
Total xG
2.98
1.53
Estrela xG
2.78
36%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
22%
4.64
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AVS vs Estrela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are AVS and Estrela expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for AVS and 1.53 for Estrela, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for AVS vs Estrela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, AVS have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 7W 17D 33L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for AVS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estrela's form line: 12W 16D 29L from 57 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AVS on 0.67 PPG, Estrela on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AVS have posted 0.71 PPG from 28 outings (4W 8D 16L).
On the road, Estrela have gone 4W 8D 16L from 28 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
AVS are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Estrela are on 0.88 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AVS
Blended
Estrela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AVS and Estrela in coming into this match?
AVS have gone 7W 17D 33L in their last 57 games (0.67 PPG), while Estrela have gone 12W 16D 29L in their last 57 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AVS at home or Estrela away?
AVS's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AVS at home: 0.71 PPG; Estrela away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Estrela won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AVS's record when hosting Estrela specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AVS
2
Draws
1
Estrela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Estrela?
From 4 meetings on record, AVS have won 1, Estrela have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AVS and Estrela last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when AVS 0-0 Estrela.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AVS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Estrela are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AVS 43%, Estrela 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AVS) and 32% (Estrela).
On the defensive side: AVS have failed to score in 43% of games; Estrela in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AVS home games / Estrela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AVS play Estrela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of AVS's recent matches and 36% of Estrela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AVS vs Estrela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AVS's recent games and 32% of Estrela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AVS and Estrela tend to score early?
AVS have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Estrela in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AVS's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AVS and Estrela finished level at 0-0 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 1.45 xG and Estrela 1.53 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AVS fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Estrela landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.75 / defence 1.27 against Estrela attack 1.01 / defence 1.25, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AVS 36% | Draw 24% | Estrela 40%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 54%, Estrela 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AVS's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estrela's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AVS 0.67 PPG, Estrela 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AVS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Estrela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.