Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Zaglebie Lubin face Raków Częstochowa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KGHM Zaglebie Arena plays host to Zaglebie Lubin versus Raków Częstochowa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Zaglebie Lubin at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Raków Częstochowa away from home: 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Zaglebie Lubin, 1.60 for Raków Częstochowa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Raków Częstochowa's last 10 away games) — Zaglebie Lubin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Raków Częstochowa in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 8 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Zaglebie Lubin, 4 for Raków Częstochowa and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Zaglebie Lubin 1–0 Raków Częstochowa — a Zaglebie Lubin win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Zaglebie Lubin half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 56% versus Raków Częstochowa 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 52% | Raków Częstochowa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.035 / defence 0.976 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.234 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.186. Raków Częstochowa have an above-average attack rating of 1.234, which lifts their away xG to 1.43. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 54 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 54.
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 35%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.64 | Draw 3.69 | Raków Częstochowa 2.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 home games and Raków Częstochowa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 60% (last 10 home games) | Raków Częstochowa 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 21 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.49 / Raków Częstochowa 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.035 / def 0.976 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.234 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Raków Częstochowa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa FAQs
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 21) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 38% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Zaglebie Lubin's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.23x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 54 games and Raków Częstochowa's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.69
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.92
1.43
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 1.43 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 54 games, going 18W 13D 23L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.83 PPG from 54 outings (29W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across their last 27 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 27 away games (16W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.44 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin (Home) vs Raków Częstochowa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa Form FAQs
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 29W 12D 13L in their last 54 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.48 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa, the earliest from May 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won Raków Częstochowa 5-0 Zaglebie Lubin on 5 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Zaglebie Lubin
2
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Zaglebie Lubin have won 4, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: Raków Częstochowa 2-3 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 56%, Raków Częstochowa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 37% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zaglebie Lubin vs Raków Częstochowa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 41% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 37% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 63% of Raków Częstochowa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Zaglebie Lubin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 21, as Zaglebie Lubin and Raków Częstochowa drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.49 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.43 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.03 / defence 0.98 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.23 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 38% | Draw 27% | Raków Częstochowa 35%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 52%, Raków Częstochowa 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.