Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Radomiak Radom travel to KGHM Zaglebie Arena to take on Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Zaglebie Lubin at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Radomiak Radom — last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Zaglebie Lubin are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Zaglebie Lubin have won 5, Radomiak Radom 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.4 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Oct 2025, ended Zaglebie Lubin 1–3 Radomiak Radom — a Radomiak Radom win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zaglebie Lubin 52% and Radomiak Radom 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 49% | Radomiak Radom 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Zaglebie Lubin surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Radomiak Radom have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.51 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.915 / defence 0.877 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.974 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.066. Data: built from Zaglebie Lubin's last 61 games and Radomiak Radom's last 61.

Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 50% | Draw 28% | Radomiak Radom 22%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.00 | Draw 3.53 | Radomiak Radom 4.62. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 56% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Zaglebie Lubin 30% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 90% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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