Pogon Szczecin 4-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 5 as Pogon Szczecin welcome Stal Mielec to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pogon Szczecin stand at 2W 1D 1L from 4 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.75 PPG. Last five: W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.75 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.75 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Stal Mielec trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 25% versus Stal Mielec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pogon Szczecin 0% | Stal Mielec 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.25 xG and Stal Mielec 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.035 / defence 0.862 | Stal Mielec attack 0.684 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.085. Data: 4 Pogon Szczecin games / 4 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 19%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Stal Mielec 5.26. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Stal Mielec's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 25% | Stal Mielec 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.25 / Stal Mielec 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.035 / def 0.862 | Stal Mielec attack 0.684 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Stal Mielec xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 51% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-D-W-L. Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.03x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
51%
1.95
30%
3.35
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
1.90
0.64
Stal Mielec xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
5%
18.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.64 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pogon Szczecin come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Stal Mielec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Pogon Szczecin or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Pogon Szczecin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pogon Szczecin's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 25%, Stal Mielec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Pogon Szczecin and 25% for Stal Mielec.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Stal Mielec in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 50% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 25% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Stal Mielec 4-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.25 xG and Stal Mielec 0.64 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.03 / defence 0.86 against Stal Mielec attack 0.68 / defence 1.10, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 51% | Draw 30% | Stal Mielec 19%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 0%, Stal Mielec 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Pogon Szczecin scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Stal Mielec shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.