Wisla Plock 1-0 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wisla Plock vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Wisla Plock and Lechia Gdansk meet at Orlen Stadion in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 April 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Wisla Plock (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

Wisla Plock at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Lechia Gdansk's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Lechia Gdansk arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Wisla Plock, 2 for Lechia Gdansk and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Wisla Plock 1–1 Lechia Gdansk — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Plock 52% and Lechia Gdansk 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 30% | Lechia Gdansk 74%). Note also that Lechia Gdansk surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Wisla Plock recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 1.17 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.689 / defence 1.207 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.288 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.098. Wisla Plock's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Lechia Gdansk have an above-average attack rating of 1.288, which lifts their away xG to 1.71. Wisla Plock's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lechia Gdansk's projected output up. Data: built from Wisla Plock's last 27 games and Lechia Gdansk's last 61.

Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 25% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 49%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 4.06 | Draw 3.73 | Lechia Gdansk 2.06. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Wisla Plock's last 10 home games and Lechia Gdansk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wisla Plock 40% (last 10 home games) | Lechia Gdansk 70% (last 10 away games).

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