Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wisla Krakow at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana to face Wisla Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wisla Krakow have collected 1.67 PPG across 6 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 2L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wisla Krakow's home record at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana: 3W 0D 0L from 3 Ekstraklasa appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.67 — Wisla Krakow are significantly better at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.57 in Wisla Krakow's favour (1.67 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wisla Krakow lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 2–4 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wisla Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games.
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wisla Krakow 83% and Radomiak Radom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wisla Krakow 83% | Radomiak Radom 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Krakow 2.00 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Krakow attack 0.956 / defence 0.890 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.357 — this is suppressing Wisla Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Wisla Krakow games / 40 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 59% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 15%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Krakow 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Wisla Krakow (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wisla Krakow as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Krakow 67% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Krakow 59% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Wisla Krakow 2.00 / Radomiak Radom 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Krakow attack 0.956 / def 0.890 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.828 / def 1.357 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Wisla Krakow (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Wisla Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Radomiak Radom xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
Where is Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Synerise Arena - Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.
What competition is Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Krakow a 59% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wisla Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
Record (2 meetings): Wisla Krakow 0W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom in?
Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Wisla Krakow's attack rating (0.96) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.83x) against Wisla Krakow's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 6/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wisla Krakow Win
59%
1.69
26%
3.84
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Wisla Krakow xG
Total xG
2.96
0.96
Radomiak Radom xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
23%
4.42
2%
49.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Wisla Krakow and 0.96 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Wisla Krakow have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 3W 1D 2L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Wisla Krakow are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wisla Krakow are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.00 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wisla Krakow
0
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
From 2 meetings on record, Wisla Krakow have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Radomiak Radom 4-2 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Wisla Krakow, 67% for Radomiak Radom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Wisla Krakow and 83% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Krakow home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Krakow play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Wisla Krakow's games and 67% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wisla Krakow vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Wisla Krakow's matches and 83% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Wisla Krakow and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Wisla Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.