Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Jagiellonia (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Radomiak Radom face Jagiellonia.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Jagiellonia are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Jagiellonia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Jagiellonia hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jagiellonia have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 67% and Jagiellonia 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Jagiellonia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.41 xG and Jagiellonia 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.945 / defence 1.012 | Jagiellonia attack 1.364 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.280. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Radomiak Radom games / 39 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 28% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 43%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Jagiellonia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 15 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 28% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.41 / Jagiellonia 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.945 / def 1.012 | Jagiellonia attack 1.364 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Jagiellonia xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 May 2027.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 28% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Record (10 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 4 | Jagiellonia 5W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.36x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 41/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
28%
3.60
29%
3.40
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.18
1.77
Jagiellonia xG
3.60
28%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
5%
21.07
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.77 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 39 games, going 12W 12D 15L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.67 PPG from 39 outings (18W 11D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 10W 5D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (8W 8D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.67 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 12D 15L in their last 39 games (1.23 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 18W 11D 10L in their last 39 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Jagiellonia away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.75 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jagiellonia won 5-0 on 2 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
5
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Radomiak Radom, 65% for Jagiellonia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Radomiak Radom and 60% for Jagiellonia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Radomiak Radom's games and 65% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 60% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.