Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Korona Kielce (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Radomiak Radom face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Radomiak Radom versus Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Radomiak Radom have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Korona Kielce arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Korona Kielce hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Korona Kielce winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Korona Kielce have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 68% and Korona Kielce 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 61% | Korona Kielce 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.24 xG and Korona Kielce 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.880 / defence 1.168 | Korona Kielce attack 0.887 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Data: 44 Radomiak Radom games / 44 Korona Kielce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 30% | Draw 34% | Korona Kielce 37%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Korona Kielce 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Korona Kielce are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Korona Kielce 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 30% | Draw 34% | Korona Kielce 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.24 / Korona Kielce 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.880 / def 1.168 | Korona Kielce attack 0.887 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Korona Kielce xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 30% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Record (8 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 1 | Korona Kielce 5W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Korona Kielce (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Korona Kielce's attack (0.89x) against Radomiak Radom's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
30%
3.36
34%
2.97
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.62
1.38
Korona Kielce xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.38 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 13D 18L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Korona Kielce sit at 1.32 PPG from 44 outings (15W 13D 16L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.32 for Korona Kielce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 10W 5D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Korona Kielce have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.18 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Korona Kielce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 13D 18L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Korona Kielce away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.59 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Korona Kielce go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Radomiak Radom have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
From 8 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 2, Korona Kielce have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 68%, Korona Kielce 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Radomiak Radom) and 36% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Korona Kielce?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Radomiak Radom's games and 50% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Korona Kielce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 36% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Korona Kielce tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Korona Kielce in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.