Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Motor Lublin welcome Wieczysta Kraków to Motor Lublin Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Motor Lublin have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Motor Lublin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Motor Lublin's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Motor Lublin Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wieczysta Kraków stand at 1W 0D 4L from 5 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wieczysta Kraków have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wieczysta Kraków's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Motor Lublin) versus 0.60 (Wieczysta Kraków). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Motor Lublin in-play and half-time data (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Wieczysta Kraków in-play and half-time data (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Motor Lublin 60% and Wieczysta Kraków 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 40% | Wieczysta Kraków 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.67 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.777 / defence 0.978 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.034 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Motor Lublin's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Wieczysta Kraków bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Motor Lublin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Motor Lublin games / 5 Wieczysta Kraków games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 43% | Draw 30% | Wieczysta Kraków 28%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Wieczysta Kraków 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Motor Lublin at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Motor Lublin 40% | Wieczysta Kraków 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Motor Lublin Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 43% | Draw 30% | Wieczysta Kraków 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Motor Lublin 1.67 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.777 / def 0.978 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.034 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Wieczysta Kraków xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Motor Lublin Arena.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków being played?
The match is being played at Motor Lublin Arena.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 43% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Motor Lublin and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Motor Lublin and Wieczysta Kraków in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Motor Lublin's attack at 0.78x the league average against Wieczysta Kraków's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wieczysta Kraków's attack versus Motor Lublin's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.39
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.99
1.32
Wieczysta Kraków xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
5%
19.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.32 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Motor Lublin's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Motor Lublin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wieczysta Kraków, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 4L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Motor Lublin on 0.80 PPG, Wieczysta Kraków on 0.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Motor Lublin have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wieczysta Kraków's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.60 PPG overall record — Wieczysta Kraków travel well.
The Goals Picture
Motor Lublin are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Wieczysta Kraków are on 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Motor Lublin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Wieczysta Kraków in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Early Season
Wieczysta Kraków
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Wieczysta Kraków in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Wieczysta Kraków away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.00 PPG; Wieczysta Kraków away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Motor Lublin see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 33%, Wieczysta Kraków 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Motor Lublin) and 67% (Wieczysta Kraków).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Motor Lublin have failed to score in 33% of games; Wieczysta Kraków in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Wieczysta Kraków?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 67% of Wieczysta Kraków's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Motor Lublin vs Wieczysta Kraków usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 67% of Wieczysta Kraków's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Wieczysta Kraków tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.