Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 32 as Widzew Łódź welcome Raków Częstochowa to . Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 May 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Widzew Łódź have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź at this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Raków Częstochowa in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Raków Częstochowa have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 0 for Widzew Łódź.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Widzew Łódź trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Raków Częstochowa trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Raków Częstochowa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Raków Częstochowa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.73 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / defence 1.185 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.972 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Data: 40 Widzew Łódź games / 38 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 41% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 31%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Raków Częstochowa 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 41% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.73 / Raków Częstochowa 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / def 1.185 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.972 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Raków Częstochowa xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 41% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (8 meetings): Widzew Łódź 0W | Draws 3 | Raków Częstochowa 5W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
41%
2.45
28%
3.54
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.23
1.50
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
5%
18.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.50 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 9D 17L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 1.45 PPG from 38 outings (16W 7D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Widzew Łódź on 1.18 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Widzew Łódź's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.47 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Raków Częstochowa in 61%.
Last 38 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 16W 7D 15L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Widzew Łódź's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.53 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Widzew Łódź
3
Draws
5
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 1-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Widzew Łódź at 63%, Raków Częstochowa at 74%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Widzew Łódź and 63% for Raków Częstochowa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Raków Częstochowa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Widzew Łódź's games and 74% of Raków Częstochowa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 63% of Raków Częstochowa's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.