Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 9 as Widzew Łódź welcome Wieczysta Kraków to . Kick-off is set for Friday 18 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Widzew Łódź are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wieczysta Kraków have recorded 1W 0D 4L from 5 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wieczysta Kraków have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wieczysta Kraków's away record: 1W 0D 3L from 4 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Widzew Łódź have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Widzew Łódź register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Wieczysta Kraków in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 60% and Wieczysta Kraków 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Widzew Łódź 60% | Wieczysta Kraków 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 2.26 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / defence 1.185 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.034 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Wieczysta Kraków bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Widzew Łódź's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Widzew Łódź games / 5 Wieczysta Kraków games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 51% | Draw 24% | Wieczysta Kraków 25%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Wieczysta Kraków 4.00. Widzew Łódź hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.85. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.85 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 73%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Wieczysta Kraków 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 51% | Draw 24% | Wieczysta Kraków 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Widzew Łódź 2.26 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 1.051 / def 1.185 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.034 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Wieczysta Kraków xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Friday 18 September 2026.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 51% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Widzew Łódź's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Wieczysta Kraków's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.26. The same calculation in reverse, Wieczysta Kraków's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.18
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
3.85
1.60
Wieczysta Kraków xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.36
27%
BTTS No
3.75
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
10%
9.56
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
3%
37.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.60 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 3.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Widzew Łódź come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wieczysta Kraków sit at 0.60 PPG from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Widzew Łódź carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Wieczysta Kraków — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Wieczysta Kraków are on 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Widzew Łódź have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Wieczysta Kraków in 80%.
Defensively: Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
Wieczysta Kraków
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Have Widzew Łódź or Wieczysta Kraków been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Wieczysta Kraków in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Widzew Łódź at 60%, Wieczysta Kraków at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Widzew Łódź and 80% for Wieczysta Kraków. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Wieczysta Kraków?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Widzew Łódź's games and 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Wieczysta Kraków usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Widzew Łódź's matches and 80% of Wieczysta Kraków's.
Do Widzew Łódź and Wieczysta Kraków tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.