Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Legia Warszawa (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Legia Warszawa face Widzew Łódź.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Widzew Łódź travel to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Wojska Polskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Legia Warszawa are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
Legia Warszawa hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Widzew Łódź, with 2 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The historical record gives Legia Warszawa a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 58% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 40% | Widzew Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.79 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / defence 0.793 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.021 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Legia Warszawa games / 40 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 19%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 5.26. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Legia Warszawa 50% | Widzew Łódź 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 52% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.79 / Widzew Łódź 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / def 0.793 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.021 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Widzew Łódź xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 15:30 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 52% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Legia Warszawa 5W | Draws 2 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.28) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.49
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.84
1.05
Widzew Łódź xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
3%
30.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.05 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 40 games, going 15W 16D 9L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.20 PPG from 40 outings (13W 9D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.52 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 10W 7D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 15W 16D 9L in their last 40 games (1.52 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.85 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Legia Warszawa
2
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 5, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 50%, Widzew Łódź 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Legia Warszawa) and 45% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Widzew Łódź in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 45% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 45% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.