Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Plock make the trip to KGHM Zaglebie Arena to face Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Form
Zaglebie Lubin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin's home record at KGHM Zaglebie Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KGHM Zaglebie Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wisla Plock have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Wisla Plock have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wisla Plock have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Zaglebie Lubin's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zaglebie Lubin lead 3W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 51% versus Wisla Plock 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 46% | Wisla Plock 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 xG and Wisla Plock 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.924 / defence 0.759 | Wisla Plock attack 0.905 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.263. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.759 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Zaglebie Lubin games / 41 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 51% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 17%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Wisla Plock 5.88. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zaglebie Lubin at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Wisla Plock 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: KGHM Zaglebie Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 51% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 / Wisla Plock 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.924 / def 0.759 | Wisla Plock attack 0.905 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Wisla Plock xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Zaglebie Lubin 0 - 2 Wisla Plock.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 51% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock?
Record (6 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 3W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 3W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.92) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (0.91x) against Zaglebie Lubin's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
51%
1.96
32%
3.11
17%
5.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.46
0.87
Wisla Plock xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
5.93
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
3%
29.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.87 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Zaglebie Lubin have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 17W 12D 12L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Plock's form line: 14W 12D 15L from 41 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Wisla Plock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.32 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (10W 7D 4L).
On the road, Wisla Plock have gone 5W 8D 8L from 21 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zaglebie Lubin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.00 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Wisla Plock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 17W 12D 12L in their last 41 games (1.54 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 14W 12D 15L in their last 41 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Wisla Plock away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.76 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Zaglebie Lubin or Wisla Plock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zaglebie Lubin have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Wisla Plock in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 4-0 on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
4
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock?
From 7 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 Wisla Plock.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 43%, Wisla Plock 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 48% (Wisla Plock).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 33% of games; Wisla Plock in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's games and 71% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 48% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock beat Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 at KGHM Zaglebie Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.59 xG and Wisla Plock 0.87 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Wisla Plock outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.92 / defence 0.76 against Wisla Plock attack 0.91 / defence 1.13, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 51% | Draw 32% | Wisla Plock 17%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Wisla Plock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 46%, Wisla Plock 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.54 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wisla Plock win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.