Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Widzew Łódź at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Piast Gliwice welcome Widzew Łódź to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Widzew Łódź stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 0.90 PPG versus Widzew Łódź's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Widzew Łódź have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Piast Gliwice's 2 victories.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Widzew Łódź have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Widzew Łódź trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 58% versus Widzew Łódź 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 52% | Widzew Łódź 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.60 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.146 / defence 1.352 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.023 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.297. Data: 40 Piast Gliwice games / 40 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 40%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Widzew Łódź 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Widzew Łódź at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 80% | Widzew Łódź 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 32% | Draw 27% | Widzew Łódź 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.60 / Widzew Łódź 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.146 / def 1.352 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.023 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Widzew Łódź xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź is scheduled to kick off at 12:45 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 32% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
Record (8 meetings): Piast Gliwice 2W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 6W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Widzew Łódź's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.65
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.39
1.79
Widzew Łódź xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
5%
18.66
8%
12.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.79 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 9D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 1.20 PPG from 40 outings (13W 9D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.20 PPG, Widzew Łódź on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Widzew Łódź have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.27 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.30 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Widzew Łódź have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
6
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Widzew Łódź have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Widzew Łódź see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 55%, Widzew Łódź 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Piast Gliwice) and 45% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 30% of games; Widzew Łódź in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 45% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 45% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.