Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Wieczysta Kraków travel to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to take on Pogon Szczecin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 September 2026, 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's home record at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Wieczysta Kraków — All Games: 1W 0D 4L from 5 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wieczysta Kraków have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wieczysta Kraków away from home this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Wieczysta Kraków trading profile (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 40% and Wieczysta Kraków 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 40% | Wieczysta Kraków 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.17 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / defence 0.996 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.034 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Wieczysta Kraków bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Pogon Szczecin games / 5 Wieczysta Kraków games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 21%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Wieczysta Kraków 4.76. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Wieczysta Kraków 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 54% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.17 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.012 / def 0.996 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.034 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Wieczysta Kraków xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków is scheduled to kick off at 12:45 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 54% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pogon Szczecin's attack rating (1.01) and Wieczysta Kraków's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wieczysta Kraków's attack versus Pogon Szczecin's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
54%
1.85
25%
4.04
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.52
1.34
Wieczysta Kraków xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
2%
41.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.34 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wieczysta Kraków, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 4L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wieczysta Kraków heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wieczysta Kraków's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.60 PPG overall record — Wieczysta Kraków travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Wieczysta Kraków are on 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków in 80%.
Defensively: Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Wieczysta Kraków
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Wieczysta Kraków away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.33 PPG; Wieczysta Kraków away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Wieczysta Kraków been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Wieczysta Kraków in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Pogon Szczecin at 67%, Wieczysta Kraków at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pogon Szczecin and 67% for Wieczysta Kraków. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin have failed to score in 33% of games; Wieczysta Kraków in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Wieczysta Kraków?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 67% of Wieczysta Kraków's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Kraków usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 67% of Wieczysta Kraków's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Wieczysta Kraków tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.