Slask Wroclaw 2-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slask Wroclaw at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Slask Wroclaw face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Radomiak Radom travel to Tarczyński Arena to take on Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa (matchday 33). The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Slask Wroclaw have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Slask Wroclaw have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Radomiak Radom away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Slask Wroclaw) versus 1.30 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, Radomiak Radom 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Nov 2023, ended Slask Wroclaw 1–0 Radomiak Radom — a Slask Wroclaw win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Slask Wroclaw in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slask Wroclaw 54% versus Radomiak Radom 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slask Wroclaw 46% | Radomiak Radom 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slask Wroclaw 1.96 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.093 / defence 0.968 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.113 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.139. Data: built from Slask Wroclaw's last 66 games and Radomiak Radom's last 66.
Result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 53% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 22%. Fair-value odds: Slask Wroclaw 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Radomiak Radom 4.51. Slask Wroclaw hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.96 / 1.23) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slask Wroclaw as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slask Wroclaw offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Slask Wroclaw's last 10 home games and Radomiak Radom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Slask Wroclaw 50% (last 10 home games) | Radomiak Radom 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 33 | Venue: Tarczyński Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slask Wroclaw 53% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Slask Wroclaw 1.96 / Radomiak Radom 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Slask Wroclaw attack 1.093 / def 0.968 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.113 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Slask Wroclaw (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Slask Wroclaw xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Radomiak Radom xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom FAQs
What time does Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Tarczyński Arena.
What was the final score in Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Slask Wroclaw 2 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Tarczyński Arena.
What competition is Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 33) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Slask Wroclaw a 53% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slask Wroclaw the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slask Wroclaw's attack rating (1.09) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Slask Wroclaw's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Slask Wroclaw's last 66 games and Radomiak Radom's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slask Wroclaw Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.00
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Slask Wroclaw xG
Total xG
3.19
1.23
Radomiak Radom xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
3%
31.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Slask Wroclaw and 1.23 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Slask Wroclaw have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 25W 20D 21L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 22W 16D 28L from 66 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slask Wroclaw on 1.44 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slask Wroclaw have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 33 home games (14W 10D 9L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 13W 7D 13L from their last 33 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Slask Wroclaw are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.12 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Slask Wroclaw (Home) vs Radomiak Radom (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom Form FAQs
What form are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Slask Wroclaw have gone 25W 20D 21L in their last 66 games (1.44 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 22W 16D 28L in their last 66 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slask Wroclaw at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Slask Wroclaw's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slask Wroclaw at home: 1.58 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 2 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Slask Wroclaw's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Slask Wroclaw
3
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 November 2026: Radomiak Radom 3-1 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slask Wroclaw 61%, Radomiak Radom 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Slask Wroclaw) and 54% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 30%; Slask Wroclaw have failed to score in 30% of games; Radomiak Radom in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slask Wroclaw home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slask Wroclaw vs Radomiak Radom Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 39% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Slask Wroclaw's recent games and 54% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slask Wroclaw and Radomiak Radom matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Slask Wroclaw's recent matches and 70% of Radomiak Radom's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slask Wroclaw cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Radomiak Radom 2-0 at Tarczyński Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slask Wroclaw 1.96 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.23 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slask Wroclaw attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.11 / defence 1.19, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slask Wroclaw 53% | Draw 25% | Radomiak Radom 22%, with Slask Wroclaw to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slask Wroclaw 46%, Radomiak Radom 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slask Wroclaw 1.44 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.