Cracovia Krakow 2-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Raków Częstochowa at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Raków Częstochowa stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.00 PPG versus Raków Częstochowa's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 1 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 46% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 38% | Raków Częstochowa 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.72 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.239 / defence 1.073 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.888 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.126. Data: 66 Cracovia Krakow games / 66 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 22%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Raków Częstochowa 4.55. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 40% | Raków Częstochowa 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.72 / Raków Częstochowa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.239 / def 1.073 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.888 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 51% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (5 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 2W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.63
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.79
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
4%
25.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.07 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 19W 25D 22L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 37W 16D 13L from 66 games, 1.92 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.45 PPG from 33 outings (12W 12D 9L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 13W 9D 11L from 33 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.76 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 19W 25D 22L in their last 66 games (1.24 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 37W 16D 13L in their last 66 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.45 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2022, when Cracovia Krakow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
2
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Raków Częstochowa have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 4-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 42%, Raków Częstochowa 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cracovia Krakow) and 48% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 30%; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 58% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 48% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Raków Częstochowa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Raków Częstochowa 2-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.72 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.24 / defence 1.07 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 28% | Raków Częstochowa 22%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 38%, Raków Częstochowa 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.24. Form was overturned, with Cracovia Krakow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.