Widzew Łódź 1-1 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 33 as Widzew Łódź welcome Lech Poznan to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Lech Poznan's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Widzew Łódź at 1.40 PPG versus Lech Poznan's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Lech Poznan 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 3–1 with Widzew Łódź winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 53% versus Lech Poznan 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 50% | Lech Poznan 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.35 xG and Lech Poznan 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.884 / defence 1.112 | Lech Poznan attack 0.944 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.113. Data: 66 Widzew Łódź games / 66 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 30%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Lech Poznan 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Widzew Łódź are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Widzew Łódź offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Widzew Łódź 60% | Lech Poznan 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Widzew Łódź 1.35 / Lech Poznan 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.884 / def 1.112 | Lech Poznan attack 0.944 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Widzew Łódź (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lech Poznan xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Widzew Łódź 1 - 1 Lech Poznan.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 39% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Widzew Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan?
Record (3 meetings): Widzew Łódź 1W | Draws 0 | Lech Poznan 2W.
What form are Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan in?
Widzew Łódź (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Lech Poznan (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Widzew Łódź's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lech Poznan's attack versus Widzew Łódź's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.29
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.52
1.17
Lech Poznan xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
8%
12.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.17 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 66 outings, Widzew Łódź have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 23W 14D 29L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Lech Poznan's form line: 31W 20D 15L from 66 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Widzew Łódź have posted 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (14W 3D 16L).
On the road, Lech Poznan have gone 13W 14D 6L from 33 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 1.45 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Current Season
Lech Poznan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 23W 14D 29L in their last 66 games (1.26 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 31W 20D 15L in their last 66 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lech Poznan's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.36 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Widzew Łódź's record when hosting Lech Poznan specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Widzew Łódź
1
Draws
4
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan?
From 8 meetings on record, Widzew Łódź have won 3, Lech Poznan have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 48%, Lech Poznan 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Widzew Łódź) and 54% (Lech Poznan).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Lech Poznan in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Widzew Łódź play Lech Poznan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 58% of Lech Poznan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Widzew Łódź vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 54% of Lech Poznan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Widzew Łódź have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 33, as Widzew Łódź and Lech Poznan drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.35 xG and Lech Poznan 1.17 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.88 / defence 1.11 against Lech Poznan attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 39% | Draw 30% | Lech Poznan 30%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 50%, Lech Poznan 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.