Raków Częstochowa 1-2 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw meet at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 May 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Raków Częstochowa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 5W 4D 1L at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Raków Częstochowa are significantly better at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Raków Częstochowa, 1.50 for Slask Wroclaw — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Raków Częstochowa have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Slask Wroclaw managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Raków Częstochowa and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 48% versus Slask Wroclaw 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 46% | Slask Wroclaw 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.42 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.094 / defence 0.823 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.931 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.113. Data: 67 Raków Częstochowa games / 67 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 21%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Slask Wroclaw 4.76. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Slask Wroclaw 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków • Kick-off: Saturday 25 May 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.42 / Slask Wroclaw 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.094 / def 0.823 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.931 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Slask Wroclaw xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 25 May 2024 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Raków Częstochowa 1 - 2 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 48% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (5 meetings): Raków Częstochowa 3W | Draws 2 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw in?
Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Raków Częstochowa's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Slask Wroclaw's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.93x) against Raków Częstochowa's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
48%
2.07
31%
3.21
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.27
0.85
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.85 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Raków Częstochowa come into this having played 67 games, going 37W 16D 14L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Slask Wroclaw sit at 1.46 PPG from 67 outings (26W 20D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Raków Częstochowa's home form reads 24W 7D 2L across 33 games on their own ground, a 2.39 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Raków Częstochowa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slask Wroclaw have taken 1.30 points per game from 33 outings (11W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.24 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Slask Wroclaw
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 37W 16D 14L in their last 67 games (1.90 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 26W 20D 21L in their last 67 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 2.39 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 1-4 on 28 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Raków Częstochowa have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Raków Częstochowa
3
Draws
2
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw?
From 9 meetings on record, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, Slask Wroclaw have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 2-1 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 39%, Slask Wroclaw 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Raków Częstochowa) and 36% (Slask Wroclaw).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Slask Wroclaw in 33%; Slask Wroclaw in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Raków Częstochowa play Slask Wroclaw?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 48% of Slask Wroclaw's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Raków Częstochowa vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 36% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Raków Częstochowa have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slask Wroclaw defy the odds to beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Raków Częstochowa 1-2 at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.42 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.85 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.93 / defence 0.87, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 31% | Slask Wroclaw 21%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Slask Wroclaw win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 46%, Slask Wroclaw 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.46. Form was overturned, with Slask Wroclaw winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.