Radomiak Radom 0-2 Ruch Chorzów – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Ruch Chorzów travel to Stadion Radomiaka to take on Radomiak Radom. The game is scheduled for Monday 13 May 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Radomiaka this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Ruch Chorzów have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Ruch Chorzów have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Radomiak Radom 1.40 PPG, Ruch Chorzów 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Radomiak Radom register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ruch Chorzów in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 0 for Ruch Chorzów and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Ruch Chorzów trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 45% versus Ruch Chorzów 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 52% | Ruch Chorzów 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.97 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.973 / defence 1.344 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.996 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.152. Ruch Chorzów bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing Radomiak Radom's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Radomiak Radom games / 31 Ruch Chorzów games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 24% | Ruch Chorzów 29%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Ruch Chorzów 3.45. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.51 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Ruch Chorzów 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 24% | Ruch Chorzów 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.97 / Ruch Chorzów 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.973 / def 1.344 | Ruch Chorzów attack 0.996 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Ruch Chorzów xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Stadion Radomiaka.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 2 Ruch Chorzów.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 47% chance of winning, Ruch Chorzów a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów?
Record (1 meetings): Radomiak Radom 0W | Draws 1 | Ruch Chorzów 0W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Ruch Chorzów (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.97) and Ruch Chorzów's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruch Chorzów's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.18
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
3.51
1.54
Ruch Chorzów xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
4%
24.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.54 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 10W 8D 13L from 31 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Ruch Chorzów, meanwhile, have gone 4W 14D 13L across 31 games — 0.84 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.23 PPG, Ruch Chorzów on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 4W 5D 6L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ruch Chorzów's away record stands at 1W 7D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Ruch Chorzów are on 1.16 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
Ruch Chorzów
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 10W 8D 13L in their last 31 games (1.23 PPG), while Ruch Chorzów have gone 4W 14D 13L in their last 31 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Ruch Chorzów away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.13 PPG; Ruch Chorzów away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
1
Ruch Chorzów
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów?
From 2 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 0, Ruch Chorzów have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2024, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Ruch Chorzów.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów?
Ruch Chorzów have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ruch Chorzów are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 60%, Ruch Chorzów 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Radomiak Radom) and 60% (Ruch Chorzów).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 33% of games; Ruch Chorzów in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Ruch Chorzów away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Ruch Chorzów?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Radomiak Radom's games and 67% of Ruch Chorzów's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Ruch Chorzów usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 60% of Ruch Chorzów's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Ruch Chorzów tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ruch Chorzów in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruch Chorzów cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruch Chorzów beat Radomiak Radom 0-2 at Stadion Radomiaka, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.97 xG and Ruch Chorzów 1.54 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Ruch Chorzów attack 1.00 / defence 1.32, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 47% | Draw 24% | Ruch Chorzów 29%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Ruch Chorzów win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 52%, Ruch Chorzów 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruch Chorzów's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.23 PPG, Ruch Chorzów 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ruch Chorzów win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Ruch Chorzów (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.