Jagiellonia 1-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 2W 2D 2L from 6 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.17 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia at Stadion Miejski this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 2W 1D 3L from 6 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.17 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.17 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jagiellonia 1.33 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.17 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 67% versus Stal Mielec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 50% | Stal Mielec 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.59 xG and Stal Mielec 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.034 / defence 1.136 | Stal Mielec attack 0.728 / defence 1.402. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.124. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.402 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Jagiellonia games / 6 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 20%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Stal Mielec 5.00. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 50% | Stal Mielec 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Jagiellonia 1.59 / Stal Mielec 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.034 / def 1.136 | Stal Mielec attack 0.728 / def 1.402 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Stal Mielec xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Jagiellonia 1 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec part of?
Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 51% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.17 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 2W-1D-3L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.03x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.43
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.52
0.93
Stal Mielec xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
4%
24.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.93 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.33 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stal Mielec's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Stal Mielec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 games (1.33 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Stal Mielec away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.00 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2022, when Jagiellonia won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 33%, Stal Mielec 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jagiellonia) and 33% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Stal Mielec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 67% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 33% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 7, as Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.59 xG and Stal Mielec 0.93 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against Stal Mielec attack 0.73 / defence 1.40, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 20%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 50%, Stal Mielec 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.33 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.