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Poisson rates Raków Częstochowa at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Raków Częstochowa vs Radomiak Radom encounter.

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Match Analysis

Raków Częstochowa host Radomiak Radom at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 19:15 UTC.

Form Guide

Raków Częstochowa — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Raków Częstochowa at 2.10 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Raków Częstochowa have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 7 past contests while Radomiak Radom have managed just 1 wins.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Raków Częstochowa winning.

The historical record gives Raków Częstochowa a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 49% versus Radomiak Radom 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 41% | Radomiak Radom 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.77 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.071 / defence 0.980 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.142 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.183. Data: 61 Raków Częstochowa games / 61 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 48% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 29%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Radomiak Radom 3.45. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Raków Częstochowa are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Raków Częstochowa 60% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.

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