Puszcza Niepołomice 2-2 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Puszcza Niepołomice at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach to face Puszcza Niepołomice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 21 April 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Puszcza Niepołomice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Radomiak Radom are 0.60 PPG clear of Puszcza Niepołomice in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Puszcza Niepołomice lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Puszcza Niepołomice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 56% versus Radomiak Radom 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 39% | Radomiak Radom 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 1.57 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.946 / defence 1.043 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.106 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.198. Data: 62 Puszcza Niepołomice games / 62 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 42% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 34%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Puszcza Niepołomice are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Radomiak Radom (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Puszcza Niepołomice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Puszcza Niepołomice 50% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach • Kick-off: Monday 21 Apr 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 42% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 1.57 / Radomiak Radom 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.946 / def 1.043 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.106 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Puszcza Niepołomice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Radomiak Radom xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:15 on Monday 21 April 2025 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Puszcza Niepołomice 2 - 2 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 42% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Puszcza Niepołomice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom?
Record (3 meetings): Puszcza Niepołomice 0W | Draws 2 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom in?
Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Puszcza Niepołomice's attack rating (0.95) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.11x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Puszcza Niepołomice Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.10
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.96
1.38
Radomiak Radom xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.47
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.38 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Puszcza Niepołomice come into this having played 62 games, going 15W 21D 26L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.16 PPG from 62 outings (20W 12D 30L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Puszcza Niepołomice against 1.16 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Puszcza Niepołomice's home form reads 11W 13D 6L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (10W 3D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Puszcza Niepołomice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.27 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 15W 21D 26L in their last 62 games (1.06 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 12D 30L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Puszcza Niepołomice's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.53 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
3
Draws
1
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom?
From 4 meetings on record, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 67%, Radomiak Radom 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 63% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Puszcza Niepołomice play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Puszcza Niepołomice's games and 47% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Puszcza Niepołomice's matches and 63% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Puszcza Niepołomice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Puszcza Niepołomice and Radomiak Radom finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski w Niepołomicach, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 1.57 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.38 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.11 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 42% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 34%, with Puszcza Niepołomice to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 39%, Radomiak Radom 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Puszcza Niepołomice 1.06 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.