Radomiak Radom 1-1 Nieciecza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Radomiak Radom welcome Nieciecza to Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 2W 5D 2L from 9 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.22 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza: 2W 2D 0L from 4 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.22 — Radomiak Radom are significantly better at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nieciecza stand at 1W 3D 4L from 8 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Nieciecza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Nieciecza have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.22 PPG versus Nieciecza's 0.75. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
Nieciecza in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 62% and Nieciecza 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 38% | Nieciecza 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.29 xG and Nieciecza 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.019 / defence 1.012 | Nieciecza attack 0.631 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.179. Data: 9 Radomiak Radom games / 8 Nieciecza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 29% | Nieciecza 22%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Nieciecza 4.55. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Radomiak Radom at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 75% | Nieciecza 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 29% | Nieciecza 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 38% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.29 / Nieciecza 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.019 / def 1.012 | Nieciecza attack 0.631 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Nieciecza xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Nieciecza.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza being played?
The match is being played at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 49% chance of winning, Nieciecza a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-5D-2L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. Nieciecza (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Nieciecza's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Nieciecza's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.46
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.04
0.75
Nieciecza xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 0.75 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nieciecza, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 4L across 8 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Nieciecza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Radomiak Radom by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nieciecza heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Nieciecza's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Nieciecza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Nieciecza are on 1.12 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Nieciecza in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Nieciecza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Nieciecza have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Nieciecza away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.67 PPG; Nieciecza away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Nieciecza specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Radomiak Radom
4
Draws
0
Nieciecza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza?
From 4 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 0, Nieciecza have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Nieciecza 1-1 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 67%, Nieciecza 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Radomiak Radom and 33% for Nieciecza.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nieciecza in 33%; Nieciecza in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Nieciecza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Nieciecza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 33% of Nieciecza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Nieciecza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 33% of Nieciecza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nieciecza in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Nieciecza finished level at 1-1 at Stadion MOSiR ul. Narutowicza, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.29 xG and Nieciecza 0.75 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against Nieciecza attack 0.63 / defence 1.13, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 29% | Nieciecza 22%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 38%, Nieciecza 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Nieciecza's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.