Raków Częstochowa 2-0 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Raków Częstochowa (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Raków Częstochowa face Korona Kielce.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Raków Częstochowa welcome Korona Kielce to zondacrypto Arena in Ekstraklasa (matchday 32). Kick-off is Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Raków Częstochowa have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Raków Częstochowa's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Korona Kielce — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Korona Kielce have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Raków Częstochowa hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Korona Kielce and 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Raków Częstochowa 4–1 Korona Kielce — a Raków Częstochowa win.
The head-to-head data gives Raków Częstochowa an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Raków Częstochowa in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Raków Częstochowa 50% versus Korona Kielce 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Raków Częstochowa 42% | Korona Kielce 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Raków Częstochowa 1.62 xG and Korona Kielce 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.059 / defence 0.876 | Korona Kielce attack 1.002 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.096. Data: built from Raków Częstochowa's last 64 games and Korona Kielce's last 65.
Result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 52% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 21%. Fair-value odds: Raków Częstochowa 1.94 | Draw 3.69 | Korona Kielce 4.69. Raków Częstochowa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Raków Częstochowa at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Raków Częstochowa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Raków Częstochowa 40% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 32 | Venue: zondacrypto Arena • Kick-off: Friday 8 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Raków Częstochowa 52% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Raków Częstochowa 1.62 / Korona Kielce 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Raków Częstochowa attack 1.059 / def 0.876 | Korona Kielce attack 1.002 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Raków Częstochowa (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Raków Częstochowa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Korona Kielce xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 8 May 2026 at zondacrypto Arena.
What was the final score in Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Raków Częstochowa 2 - 0 Korona Kielce.
Where is Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at zondacrypto Arena.
What competition is Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce part of?
Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 32) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Raków Częstochowa a 52% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Raków Częstochowa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Raków Częstochowa's attack at 1.06x the league average against Korona Kielce's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Raków Częstochowa's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Raków Częstochowa's last 64 games and Korona Kielce's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Raków Częstochowa Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.69
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Raków Częstochowa xG
Total xG
2.58
0.96
Korona Kielce xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
23.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa and 0.96 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Raków Częstochowa have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 33W 16D 15L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Korona Kielce's form line: 21W 21D 22L from 64 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Korona Kielce.
Venue Form
On home soil, Raków Częstochowa have posted 1.77 PPG from their last 31 home games (16W 7D 8L).
On the road, Korona Kielce have gone 7W 13D 11L from their last 31 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Raków Częstochowa are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.17 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Korona Kielce
Current Season
Raków Częstochowa (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Raków Częstochowa
Current Season
Korona Kielce
Current Season
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Raków Częstochowa have gone 33W 16D 15L in their last 64 games (1.80 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 21W 21D 22L in their last 64 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Raków Częstochowa at home or Korona Kielce away?
Raków Częstochowa's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Raków Częstochowa at home: 1.77 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Raków Częstochowa or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Raków Częstochowa have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2025, when Raków Częstochowa won Korona Kielce 1-4 Raków Częstochowa.
Raków Częstochowa's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Raków Częstochowa
2
Draws
2
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Raków Częstochowa have won 5, Korona Kielce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Korona Kielce 3-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Raków Częstochowa 52%, Korona Kielce 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Raków Częstochowa) and 32% (Korona Kielce).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Korona Kielce in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Raków Częstochowa home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Raków Częstochowa vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Raków Częstochowa's games and 61% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Raków Częstochowa's recent games and 32% of Korona Kielce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Raków Częstochowa and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Raków Częstochowa's recent matches and 64% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Raków Częstochowa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Korona Kielce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Korona Kielce 2-0 at zondacrypto Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Raków Częstochowa 1.62 xG and Korona Kielce 0.96 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Korona Kielce landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Raków Częstochowa attack 1.06 / defence 0.88 against Korona Kielce attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Raków Częstochowa 52% | Draw 27% | Korona Kielce 21%, with Raków Częstochowa to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Raków Częstochowa 42%, Korona Kielce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.