Radomiak Radom 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 5 as Radomiak Radom welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion im. Braci Czachorów. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 August 2026 at 12:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.30 PPG versus Zaglebie Lubin's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Zaglebie Lubin have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Radomiak Radom's 3 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Zaglebie Lubin have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 70% versus Zaglebie Lubin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.54 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.978 / defence 1.136 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.975 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.230. Data: 38 Radomiak Radom games / 37 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 32%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 80% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 12:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.54 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.978 / def 1.136 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.975 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Zaglebie Lubin xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 12:45 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 40% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (9 meetings): Radomiak Radom 3W | Draws 0 | Zaglebie Lubin 6W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Radomiak Radom's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.49
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.90
1.36
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.36 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Radomiak Radom come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 11D 15L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.46 PPG from 37 outings (15W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.19 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Radomiak Radom's home form reads 9W 4D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Radomiak Radom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.17 points per game from 18 outings (6W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.35 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.72 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
6
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 72%, Zaglebie Lubin 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Radomiak Radom) and 50% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Zaglebie Lubin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Radomiak Radom's games and 56% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Radomiak Radom's matches and 50% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Radomiak Radom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 5, as Radomiak Radom and Zaglebie Lubin drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.54 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.36 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.98 / defence 1.14 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 40% | Draw 29% | Zaglebie Lubin 32%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.19 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.