Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow meet at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Wisla Krakow have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 0D 2L. Last five: W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wisla Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.50 for Wisla Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Pogon Szczecin, 0 for Wisla Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 4–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 50% and Wisla Krakow 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 25% | Wisla Krakow 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.17 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.021 / defence 0.942 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.017 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.230. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Pogon Szczecin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Pogon Szczecin games / 4 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 58% | Draw 23% | Wisla Krakow 18%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Wisla Krakow 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Pogon Szczecin (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.35 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Wisla Krakow 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 58% | Draw 23% | Wisla Krakow 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.17 / Wisla Krakow 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.021 / def 0.942 | Wisla Krakow attack 1.017 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Wisla Krakow xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 2 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 58% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow?
Record (2 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 0 | Wisla Krakow 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Pogon Szczecin's attack at 1.02x the league average against Wisla Krakow's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (1.02x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 37/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.29
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
3.35
1.18
Wisla Krakow xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
11%
8.77
Win to Nil
18%
5.56
2%
47.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.18 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 2W 1D 1L from 4 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 2L across 4 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.50 for Wisla Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Wisla Krakow's attacking output running into Pogon Szczecin's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wisla Krakow in 100%.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
Wisla Krakow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 on 18 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Pogon Szczecin
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 50% for Pogon Szczecin, 100% for Wisla Krakow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Pogon Szczecin and 100% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 100% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 100% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 5, as Pogon Szczecin and Wisla Krakow drew 2-2 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.17 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.18 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Wisla Krakow outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Wisla Krakow attack 1.02 / defence 1.35, drawn from 37/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 58% | Draw 23% | Wisla Krakow 18%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 25%, Wisla Krakow 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.75 PPG, Wisla Krakow 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pogon Szczecin shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.