Legia Warszawa 5-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Legia Warszawa (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Legia Warszawa face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie to take on Legia Warszawa. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 3 for Radomiak Radom and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 57% and Radomiak Radom 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 40% | Radomiak Radom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.09 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.178 / defence 0.868 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.940 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.174. Data: 37 Legia Warszawa games / 37 Radomiak Radom games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 62% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 15%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Radomiak Radom 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 62% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 55% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.09 / Radomiak Radom 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.178 / def 0.868 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.940 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Radomiak Radom xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa 5 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 62% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Record (9 meetings): Legia Warszawa 5W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.18) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (37/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.42
15%
6.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.05
0.96
Radomiak Radom xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
6.64
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
12%
8.11
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
2%
53.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.96 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 14W 14D 9L from 37 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 14L across 37 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Legia Warszawa on 1.51 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 9W 6D 3L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 2W 7D 9L across 18 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.51 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 73%.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 14W 14D 9L in their last 37 games (1.51 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.83 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2026, when Legia Warszawa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
3
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 6, Radomiak Radom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 5-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 50%, Radomiak Radom 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Legia Warszawa) and 61% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Legia Warszawa's games and 72% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 61% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Radomiak Radom 5-0 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego w Warszawie, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 2.09 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.96 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.18 / defence 0.87 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 62% | Draw 23% | Radomiak Radom 15%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 40%, Radomiak Radom 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.51 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.