Cracovia Krakow 3-2 Wieczysta Kraków – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Wieczysta Kraków at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 August 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 1W 7D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Wieczysta Kraków have recorded 1W 0D 2L from 3 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wieczysta Kraków have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.00 PPG versus Wieczysta Kraków's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cracovia Krakow register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Wieczysta Kraków trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 33% and Wieczysta Kraków 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cracovia Krakow 33% | Wieczysta Kraków 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.66 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.846 / defence 1.027 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.138 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.200. Wieczysta Kraków bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Cracovia Krakow games / 3 Wieczysta Kraków games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 32%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Wieczysta Kraków 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 60% | Wieczysta Kraków 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 21 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.66 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.846 / def 1.027 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.138 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Wieczysta Kraków xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 21 August 2026 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Cracovia Krakow 3 - 2 Wieczysta Kraków.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 43% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Wieczysta Kraków's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Wieczysta Kraków's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
43%
2.34
25%
3.93
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.06
1.40
Wieczysta Kraków xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
6%
16.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.40 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 1W 1D 1L from 3 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wieczysta Kraków, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.33 PPG, Wieczysta Kraków on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Wieczysta Kraków are on 2.00 scored and 2.33 conceded. Wieczysta Kraków's attacking output running into Cracovia Krakow's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Wieczysta Kraków in 100%.
Last 3 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Wieczysta Kraków
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Cracovia Krakow or Wieczysta Kraków been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Wieczysta Kraków in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
0
Draws
0
Wieczysta Kraków
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków?
From 1 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Wieczysta Kraków have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 3-2 Wieczysta Kraków.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cracovia Krakow at 33%, Wieczysta Kraków at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Cracovia Krakow and 100% for Wieczysta Kraków. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Wieczysta Kraków?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 100% of Wieczysta Kraków's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Wieczysta Kraków usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 100% of Wieczysta Kraków's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Wieczysta Kraków tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Wieczysta Kraków 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Wieczysta Kraków 3-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.66 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.40 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.14 / defence 1.27, drawn from 38/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 43% | Draw 25% | Wieczysta Kraków 32%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 33%, Wieczysta Kraków 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Wieczysta Kraków's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.33 PPG, Wieczysta Kraków 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.