Radomiak Radom 2-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Radomiak Radom take on Cracovia Krakow.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Radomiak Radom and Cracovia Krakow meet at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 10:15 UTC.

Form

Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Radomiak Radom's home record at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Radomiak Radom against 1.30 for Cracovia Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Radomiak Radom, 5 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Radomiak Radom half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 69% versus Cracovia Krakow 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Cracovia Krakow 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.99 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.861 / defence 1.017 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.728 / defence 0.745. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.224. Cracovia Krakow's defence strength of 0.745 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 39 Radomiak Radom games / 39 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 33% | Draw 38% | Cracovia Krakow 28%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Cracovia Krakow 3.57. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Radomiak Radom 80% | Cracovia Krakow 30%.

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