Miedz Legnica 0-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion im. Orła Białego to take on Miedz Legnica. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 January 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Miedz Legnica — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Miedz Legnica's home record at Stadion im. Orła Białego: 2W 2D 4L from 8 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Radomiak Radom have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Miedz Legnica at 0.80 PPG versus Radomiak Radom's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Miedz Legnica, 0 for Radomiak Radom and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Miedz Legnica in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Miedz Legnica 62% versus Radomiak Radom 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Miedz Legnica 56% | Radomiak Radom 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Miedz Legnica 1.05 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Miedz Legnica attack 0.861 / defence 1.226 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.988 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.263. Data: 16 Miedz Legnica games / 51 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 26% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 48%. Fair-value odds: Miedz Legnica 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 2.08. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Miedz Legnica 62% | Radomiak Radom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion im. Orła Białego • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 26% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Miedz Legnica 1.05 / Radomiak Radom 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Miedz Legnica attack 0.861 / def 1.226 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.988 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Miedz Legnica xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Radomiak Radom xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What was the final score in Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom?
Miedz Legnica 0 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What competition is Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Miedz Legnica a 26% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Miedz Legnica 0W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom in?
Miedz Legnica (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Miedz Legnica's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Miedz Legnica's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
26%
3.84
26%
3.90
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Miedz Legnica xG
Total xG
2.58
1.53
Radomiak Radom xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
6%
17.73
17%
5.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.53 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Miedz Legnica come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 3D 10L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (7W 1D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Miedz Legnica — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Miedz Legnica's home form reads 2W 2D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.62 points per game from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.25 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Miedz Legnica
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Miedz Legnica have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 7W 1D 8L in their last 16 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Miedz Legnica at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Miedz Legnica at home: 1.00 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Miedz Legnica
2
Draws
0
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom?
From 2 meetings on record, Miedz Legnica have won 0, Radomiak Radom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when Miedz Legnica 0-0 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Miedz Legnica 62%, Radomiak Radom 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Miedz Legnica) and 50% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Miedz Legnica home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Miedz Legnica play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Miedz Legnica's games and 50% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Miedz Legnica vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Miedz Legnica's recent games and 50% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Miedz Legnica have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Miedz Legnica's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Miedz Legnica and Radomiak Radom finished level at 0-0 at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Regular Season - 18, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Miedz Legnica 1.05 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.53 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Miedz Legnica fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Miedz Legnica attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.99 / defence 0.94, drawn from 16/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Miedz Legnica 26% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 48%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Miedz Legnica 56%, Radomiak Radom 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Radomiak Radom arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Miedz Legnica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.