Radomiak Radom 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Radomiak Radom face Legia Warszawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Legia Warszawa at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów in Ekstraklasa (matchday 25). Kick-off is Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Radomiak Radom at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Legia Warszawa stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Legia Warszawa away from home: 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.30 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Legia Warszawa 5, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Radomiak Radom 1–4 Legia Warszawa — a Legia Warszawa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Radomiak Radom 69% and Legia Warszawa 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 62% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.66 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 1.082 / defence 0.966 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.044 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.175. Data: built from Radomiak Radom's last 58 games and Legia Warszawa's last 58.
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 26%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.11 | Draw 3.83 | Legia Warszawa 3.79. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Radomiak Radom's last 10 home games and Legia Warszawa's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Radomiak Radom 50% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 90% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadion im. Braci Czachorów • Kick-off: Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Radomiak Radom 1.66 / Legia Warszawa 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 1.082 / def 0.966 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.044 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa FAQs
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 13 March 2026 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Radomiak Radom 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 25) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 48% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (1.08) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Radomiak Radom's last 58 games and Legia Warszawa's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
48%
2.11
26%
3.83
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.84
1.18
Legia Warszawa xG
2.11
48%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
5%
19.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.18 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 19W 16D 23L from 58 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 18L across 58 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.26 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 13W 7D 9L from their last 29 home games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 7W 11D 11L across their last 29 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.52 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Legia Warszawa in 64%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Radomiak Radom (Home) vs Legia Warszawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa Form FAQs
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 16D 23L in their last 58 games (1.26 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 21W 19D 18L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.59 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from December 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 14 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2026, when Legia Warszawa won Legia Warszawa 5-0 Radomiak Radom.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
6
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Legia Warszawa 5-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Radomiak Radom at 66%, Legia Warszawa at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Radomiak Radom) and 52% (Legia Warszawa).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Radomiak Radom's games and 69% of Legia Warszawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 52% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 79% of Legia Warszawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Braci Czachorów, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.66 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.18 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 48% | Draw 26% | Legia Warszawa 26%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 62%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.26 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.