Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Piast Gliwice face Pogon Szczecin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach to take on Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Monday 13 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Piast Gliwice have gone 5W 0D 5L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Piast Gliwice's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Pogon Szczecin away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Piast Gliwice 1.50 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Pogon Szczecin 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 8 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Piast Gliwice 1–2 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 49% versus Pogon Szczecin 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 43% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.44 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.976 / defence 1.069 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.853 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.086. Data: built from Piast Gliwice's last 61 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 61.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 46% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 25%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.16 | Draw 3.43 | Pogon Szczecin 4.07. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Piast Gliwice 50% (last 10 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach • Kick-off: Monday 13 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 46% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Piast Gliwice 1.44 / Pogon Szczecin 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.976 / def 1.069 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.853 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Pogon Szczecin xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 13 April 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 28) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 46% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Piast Gliwice's last 61 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.43
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.43
0.99
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
6%
17.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.99 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 21W 17D 23L from 61 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 23L across 61 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.31 PPG, Pogon Szczecin on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 10W 11D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 6W 7D 17L across their last 30 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.56 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Piast Gliwice (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 27W 11D 23L in their last 61 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.37 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Piast Gliwice 1-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 43%, Pogon Szczecin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 33% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 53% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 73% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Piast Gliwice 0-2 at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach, Regular Season - 28, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.44 xG and Pogon Szczecin 0.99 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.98 / defence 1.07 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 46% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 25%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Pogon Szczecin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 43%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.31 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.